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Scarlet & Violet brought tons of changes to the Pokémon TCG, and before the set released, nobody knew how those changes would impact card prices. Now that we've had time to comb through the set's pull rates, the biggest surprise is how broad the highest tier of chase cards is.
All of the Ultra Rares, Illustration Rares, Special Illustration Rares, and Hyper Rares in Scarlet & Violet—that is, all the Secret Rares—have practically the same pull rates. In TCGplayer's sample of over 8000 booster packs, they all fell between 0.42% and 0.25%, with half of them falling between 0.30% and 0.35%. Given the margin of error, it's possible the actual pull rates for all these cards are truly identical.
With so many cards being equally scarce, the only factor that keeps some cards cheap and others expensive is demand. Which cards are fans holding on to, and which are they willing to sell? Which are they willing to buy as singles rather than risk the uncertainty of another Booster Box? Scarlet & Violet is a near-perfect experiment for measuring what cards Pokémon fans actually want, unsullied by artificial scarcity.
These are the most expensive Pokémon cards in the Scarlet & Violet base set.
#10 Riolu (Illustration Rare)
This is the first Illustration Rare on this list, but it won't be the last. With fans able to pull all the set's Secret Rares at more or less the same frequency, fans are gravitating toward the card with unique art and familiar monsters, even over cards that technically belong to a higher rarity.
Riolu picks up some popularity points by being the baby version of Lucario, the best-loved Pokémon of Gen IV, but illustrator Nelnal deserves most of the credit for this card's price. Riolu's calm expression will look hilariously familiar to anyone who's ever had a rambunctious pet.
#9 Koraidon ex (Special Illustration Rare)
Of the five (yes, five) Koraidon cards in Scarlet & Violet, The Special Illustration Rare version of Koraidon ex is by far the most valuable. The lush, wild background matches Koraidon's theme as an ancient Pokémon, and the shadowed Dedenne reinforces that we're still in the Pokémon world. It's just a purdy card.
Competitively, Koraidon ex offers good Energy acceleration but at the cost of giving up your attack for the turn. That's still nice for setting up your first attack, but unfortunately, Wild Impact is just a little too weak to reliably KO multi-Prize Pokémon in one shot, and once you've used it, you're basically committed to Dino Cry the following turn. Bad luck if you haven't discarded any extra Energy.
#8 Nest Ball (Hyper Rare)
Like Rare Candy, Nest Ball gets to rank among the most valuable cards in Scarlet & Violet because of how many decks it's in (virtually all of them). Every Pokémon deck runs Basic Pokémon, and Nest Ball finds them for no cost, not even a once-per-turn clause.
You know how Radiant Pokémon are limited to one copy per deck? Nest Ball turns that restriction into a joke.
Right now Nest Ball is far and away the most valuable Uncommon in Scarlet & Violet, and enough players want to max-rarity their decks that the gold Hyper Rare version of Nest Ball has beat out every Illustration Rare in the set.
#7 Slowpoke (Illustration Rare)
Toshinao Aoki draws some of the best derpy-looking faces of anyone who works with The Pokémon Company. From Surfing Pikachu to Lana's Aid, when you need a character to look like they have zero thoughts and are loving life, Aoki delivers. We shouldn't be surprised that when they got to do a Slowpoke card, they knocked it out of the park.
#6 Drowzee (Illustration Rare)
After 25 years, Drowzee finally has a full-art card. And what a card! Tomokazu Komiya's hypnagogic, impressionistic illustration melts the world into lumpy shapes and strange hues, like you're seeing the whole scene while under Drowzee's influence. Is this your dream, or Drowzee's? Either way, it's beautiful.
#5 Miraidon ex (Special Illustration Rare)
There's something absurd and beautiful about Miraidon and Fidough regarding each other through the window walls of an apartment building. Part of it's the contrast between the Legendary Pokémon with jet engines for legs and the stubby-legged doggo so cute you could literally eat it all up. But there's also the contrast between what these two Pokémon represent: outside, the modern world alight with electricity and potential danger; inside, the modern comforts of domesticated pets and potted plants.
There's a whole parable about the dual nature of technology in this card's art. Plus, it's adorable.
#4 Kirlia (Illustration Rare)
This Kirlia card looks pretty cute, with the cozy home scene and the soft color scheme that matches Kirlia's own. That probably wouldn't be enough on its own to make this card so valuable though. As we're about to see, this card has a secret...
#3 Ralts (Illustration Rare)
...it's one of a set. The Gardevoir evolution line got a trio of Secret Rare cards with full-card illustrations by Jiro Sasumo, which tell a three-part story that unfolds through the evolution line. Any Pokémon fan who's ever heard the words "gotta catch 'em all" and opens one of these cards will naturally want the other pieces to finish the set. More demand means higher prices.
It also doesn't hurt that Gardevoir ex is a powerhouse card that you need Ralts to evolve into.
#2 Gardevoir ex (Special Illustration Rare)
The Special Illustration Rare version of Gardevoir ex has everything going for it.
First, its illustration is a heartwarming domestic scene full of cozy colors and light that also serves as the final piece of a three-part story with Gardevoir ex's previous evolutions, Ralts and Kirlia. Pokémon fans love collecting, and the allure of owning the full triptych is going to keep all three cards in high demand.
Second, Gardevoir ex is a competitive powerhouse that offers absurd Energy acceleration. Most players would happily take 20 damage to get back one Energy from their discard, but with Gardevoir in play, you can keep making that deal as long as you have HP to lose and Energy to regain. If that's not enough, Miracle Force KOs nearly any Pokémon in two hits while clearing Special Conditions.
If anything, it's surprising Gardevoir ex isn't #1 on this list.
#1 Miriam (Special Illustration Rare)
You have to go back almost three years, to Rebel Clash, to find another set where its biggest pull was a Trainer card. In the case of Rebel Clash, that Trainer was Boss's Orders, a Supporter so game-warping it arguably never should've been printed. In the case of Scarlet & Violet, that card is Miriam.
The Special Illustration Rare version of Miriam is the most expensive card in Scarlet & Violet at least in part because of the success of its Japanese version. To the surprise of most English commenters, the Japanese version of this card was insanely popular when it first released, with ungraded copies selling for over $400. Sellers expected the English version to sell just as well, and because of how markets work, that expectation created a self-fulfilling prophecy. Time will tell whether Miriam deserves this hype or if another card from Scarlet & Violet will overtake her in the race to the top.