Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—151 Pull Rates

To prepare for the release of Scarlet & Violet—151 on September 22, 2023, The TCGplayer Authentication Center opened more than 1,500 booster packs.

Despite initial concerns that 151's pull rates would be much tougher than the rates of previous Scarlet & Violet sets, the numbers show that 151 is just as generous as sets like Paldea Evolved and Obsidian Flames. The number of Secret Rare cards is higher than Obsidian Flames, so your odds of pulling specific cards has gone down a bit, but the spread of each rarity in general appears consistent. The Secret Rare Hit Rate we calculated is actually 1% better than Obsidian Flames, though it's within our confidence interval, so that's more likely due to natural variation in our samples than to truly better odds.

The existence of God Packs in 151, which contain the Illustration Rare and Special Illustration Rare versions of the complete evolution line of one of Kanto's starter Pokémon, likely skews the populations of those nine cards a tiny bit. But God Packs are so rare that they don't meaningfully influence your chances of finding those cards.

Here's a more in-depth look at the pull rates in Scarlet & Violet—151. All the numbers below represent your odds per pack (not e.g. "per box"). We used a 95% confidence interval to generate all the percentage ranges like "13.28% ± 1.57%".  The "Per X Packs" numbers are much less precise, and are just meant to make the percentages easier to grok.

The odds on specific cards of each rarity assume an equal population of each card at that rarity. With one exception (noted below), the pull rates for each card we found fit within the 95% confidence interval of an individual card of that rarity, which supports the assumption above.

Note: Your personal experience will vary—that's how randomized booster packs work!

Foil Energy (1 in 4)

As with all booster packs in the Scarlet & Violet Series, the last card in a pack of 151 is a Basic Energy card of one of the eight types currently supported in the Pokémon TCG (Darkness, Fighting, Fire, Grass, Lightning, Metal, Psychic, and Water). What's unique in 151 is that these Energy cards have a chance to have a Cosmos Holofoil pattern, with those neat little swirls that everybody loves.

Around 25% of Scarlet & Violet—151 booster packs contain a foil Energy card in the Energy slot.

Double Rare (1 in 8)

There are 12 Double Rare cards in Scarlet & Violet—151, all of which are regular-version Pokémon ex cards like Wigglytuff ex and Venusaur ex. Around 13% of Scarlet & Violet—151 booster packs contain a Double Rare in the Rare slot.

Ultra Rare (1 in 16)

There are 16 Ultra Rare cards in Scarlet & Violet—151: 12 Full Art Pokémon ex like Alakazam ex, and four Full Art Trainers like Giovanni's Charisma. Around 6-7% of Scarlet & Violet—151 booster packs contain an Ultra Rare in the Rare slot.

Illustration Rare (1 in 12)

There are 16 Illustration Rare cards in Scarlet & Violet—151, all of which are full-card alternate art versions of normal (non-ex) Pokémon, like Charmander and Pikachu. Around 8-9% of Scarlet & Violet—151 booster packs contain an Illustration Rare in the second Reverse Holo slot.

Note: Illustration Rare Caterpie was the only card in Scarlet & Violet—151 with a pull rate outside of the 95% confidence interval for its rarity (0.17%, below a bottom limit of 0.20%). That could be a statistical anomaly, or it could indicate that Caterpie was short-printed compared to the other Illustration Rares. Keep an eye on that one.

Special Illustration Rare (1 in 32)

There are seven Special Illustration Rare cards in Scarlet & Violet—151, all of which feature full-card alternate art. Five are Pokémon ex like Charizard ex, and the other two are Trainers like Erika's Invitation. Around 3% of Scarlet & Violet—151 booster packs contain a Special Illustration Rare in the second Reverse Holo slot. Your odds of pulling Special Illustration Rare Charizard ex in any given pack of Scarlet & Violet—151 are less than half a percent (0.44%).

Hyper Rare (1 in 52)

There are three Hyper Rare cards in Scarlet & Violet—151, all of which feature golden frames and borders: Mew ex, Basic Psychic Energy, and Switch. Around 2% of Scarlet & Violet—151 booster packs contain a Hyper Rare in the second Reverse Holo slot.