Pokémon TCG: Paradox Rift Pull Rates

To prepare for the release of Paradox Rift on November 3, 2023, The TCGplayer Authentication Center opened more than 8,000 booster packs.

The Pokémon Company International must have gotten the memo that hard-core collectors weren't happy with how generous the pull rates have been in recent sets, because for Paradox Rift they put some twists on the formula they've been following for the Scarlet & Violet Series until now.

The biggest changes are to the highest rarities in the game. Your odds of pulling a Special Illustration Rare or Hyper Rare in Paradox Rift are about two-thirds of what they were in previous Scarlet & Violet sets. In Obsidian Flames, you could expect to find a SIR or HR in about 3.13% or 1.92% of packs, respectively. In Paradox Rift, those odds are down to 2.11% and 1.22%. Thankfully, the odds of opening Double Rares have gone up slightly (from 13.61% to 15.57%), so your overall odds of opening a better-than-Rare card have stayed the same: just north of 30%. 

But it's not only the proportion of each rarity that will make this set harder to collect. Paradox Rift has more than twice as many Special Illustration Rares and Hyper Rares as either Obsidian Flames or 151, which means that even if the rates-per-rarity hadn't changed, you'd still need to open twice as many booster packs to find them all.

These changes aren't so drastic that most fans will notice them while ripping a single booster box. But they will make the prices of Paradox Rift singles more resistant to increases in supply. If this were a set with tons of collector appeal like 151, we might expect to see sky-high prices for a few of the biggest chase cards, but Paradox Rift doesn't have a single Gen I Pokémon in its higher rarities, unless you count Sandy Shocks. And you shouldn't.

What will the market say is a fair price for an extremely powerful, extremely hard-to-pull card with gorgeous artwork...of an alternate form of a Pokémon from Generation III? We're about to find out.

Here's a more in-depth look at the pull rates in Paradox Rift. All the numbers below represent your odds per pack (not e.g. "per box"). We used a 95% confidence interval to generate all the percentage ranges like "15.57% ± 0.76%".  The "Per X Packs" numbers are much less precise, and are just meant to make the percentages easier to grok.

The odds on specific cards of each rarity assume an equal population of each card at that rarity. The pull rates for each card we found fit within the 95% confidence interval of an individual card of that rarity, which supports the assumption above.

Note: Your personal experience will vary—that's how randomized booster packs work!

Double Rare (1 in 6)

There are 20 Double Rare cards in Paradox Rift, all of which are regular-version Pokémon ex cards like Skeledirge ex and Mewtwo ex. Around 15-16% of Paradox Rift booster packs contain a Double Rare in the Rare slot.

Ultra Rare (1 in 15)

There are 28 Ultra Rare cards in Paradox Rift: 18 Full Art Pokémon ex like Iron Hands ex, and ten Full Art Trainers like Larry. Around 6-7% of Paradox Rift booster packs contain an Ultra Rare in the Rare slot.

Illustration Rare (1 in 13)

There are 34 Illustration Rare cards in Paradox Rift, all of which are full-card alternate art versions of normal (non-ex) Pokémon, like Groudon and Mantyke. Around 7-8% of Paradox Rift booster packs contain an Illustration Rare in the second Reverse Holo slot.

Special Illustration Rare (1 in 47)

There are 15 Special Illustration Rare cards in Paradox Rift, all of which feature full-card alternate art. Nine are Pokémon ex like Roaring Moon ex, and the other six are Trainers like Professor Sada's Vitality. Around 2% of Paradox Rift booster packs contain a Special Illustration Rare in the second Reverse Holo slot. Your odds of pulling Special Illustration Rare Roaring Moon ex in any given pack of Paradox Rift are a small fraction of a percent (0.14%).

Hyper Rare (1 in 82)

There are seven Hyper Rare cards in Paradox Rift, all of which feature golden frames and borders. Three are Pokémon ex like Iron Valiant ex, and the other four are Trainer cards like Counter Catcher. Around 1% of Paradox Rift booster packs contain a Hyper Rare in the second Reverse Holo slot.